is a global scenario analysis and stress testing tool which primarily addresses stress testing needs in the financial sector, but also such of public and semi-public authorities or institutions, corporates or internationally active real estate firms.
It helps you navigate through an economic environment characterized by increasing international, industrial and financial interconnectedness, by disruptive development elements, and in many respects by exponentially accelerating speed.
Starting point: What makes you worry?
- What are severe global stress scenarios you could imagine to unfold in the next few years – or you might want to analyze for any other reason?
- What might be the global + local consequences of a realization of such stress scenarios in our interlinked world?
How the MACROPILOT can help you analyzing and quantifying such risks. It does so by
- evaluating how shocks spread globally and between sectors (this stress testing and scenario analysis capability is the main feature of the tool); and
- complementary, also by forecasting a set of major macro-financial variables for the countries covered (covered countries represent dominant part of global GDP). Thus, the model provides you with shock versus non-shock figures.
What does the global spreading of shocks mean?
I. Imagine, a shock occurs to variable X1 in country C1
II. Then, the MACROPILOT evaluates which effects this hypothetical shock on X1C1 has
→ on all the variables included in the model
→ in all countries covered
→ first, instantaneously
→ and second, over different forecasting horizons (this last dimension is skipped in the graph on the right-hand side).
Where X1: variable 1, C1: country 1, N: number of countries, K: number of variables
Demonstration of a small subset of available model output
Effects of a global oil price shock (here: initial shock +13%) on real GDP in a group of sample countries + the dynamic structure of the effects thereof*
* Simulations for demonstration charts are usually carried out on previous data set versions. Client simulations are always based on our latest available data sets (data sets being regularly updated).