welcome to the MEMBER Area for Macropilot analysis. Please find all the details below.
Define your stress scenario(s)
If you need support in the process of defining your stress scenario, please contact us.
In the following, please select for each country and / or region for which you would like to stress a variable the variables that should be stressed, and specify the shock size you want to have evaluated for the variable. You can specify the shock for a variable either as percentage point deviation from the variable´s base case value or as a multiple of the variable´s standard deviation.
National variables are: Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, Stock Price Index, Exchange Rate vs. USD, Short-Term Interest Rates, Long-Term Interest Rates
Alternatively, or complementary, to the country specific definition above, where you can define different national shock sizes for one variable category, you also have the possibility to select an area and define one shock per variable category for the whole area (e.g. a drop in inflation for the whole euro area by 2 percentage points).
In case of global variables, you directly choose the global variable to be stressed and define the shock scenario to be exerted.
Global variables are: Oil Price, Volatility Index
You can also stress national and global variables simultaneously to evaluate the joint effects.
Once you have specified the various shocks you want to have evaluated in your stress scenario(s), please define your output preferences in terms of countries and variables for which you would like to have displayed the output in the summary table.
Define the content of your output summary table
Please select the countries / regions and variables you would like to have displayed in your output summary table (it will be prepared for you in addition to the overall output file available for download).
If you have finalized your stress scenario specification and have selected the countries / regions and variables you want to have included in your output summary table, conclude your order and initiate the MACROPILOT simulations with the SUBMIT button, please.
Start with creating a scenario